The Ultimate Fighting Championship kicks it up a
notch when it shifts to the ABC airwaves for
UFC on ABC 3 this Saturday on Long Island. With the highest
betting favorite around -300 odds, parity is the name of the game
for this show at the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. Prime Picks for
this well-matched lineup feature the favored man in the
offense-first headliner, a barnburner that should lean towards the
local man, an ex-title challenger looking to stave off a former
champion and a newcomer who has been a woman possessed at her new
weight class.
With everything other than the immediate championship implications,
the UFC matchmakers knew exactly what they were doing by matching
Ortega against Yair
Rodriguez. Neither man shies away from a fierce exchange, and
both sport chins that hold up to ample punishment and cardio that
allows them to succeed even in the later rounds. On the feet, this
could be an absolutely ferocious contest where they battle it out
to the bitter end. Rodriguez unquestionably holds the edge when the
fighters are standing, with a speed matched by few at
featherweight. Where Ortega’s greatest advantage lies happens to be
Rodriguez’s greatest weakness and one that still showed gaps as
recently as the last appearance for “El Pantera.” Once this fight
inevitably hits the mat, it is Ortega by anything he wants.
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Rodriguez found himself controlled for long stretches of the later
rounds by Max
Holloway, a fighter who landed nearly as many takedowns in
their fight alone as he had over the rest of his UFC career
combined. If Holloway had no issue grounding Rodriguez and keeping
him there, Ortega can have a field day. Even if Rodriguez decides
to switch things up and keep everyone guessing with an offensive
guard while constantly searching for sweeps and reversals in
submission setups, he will play firmly in the favor of Ortega.
“T-City” has the innate ability to snatch subs practically out of
thin air, even when down on the scorecards or fatigued. The first
four UFC wins for the Californian came in Round 3, with knockouts
and submissions alike, cementing the reality that he is not out of
the fight until one puts him out.
It will be an uphill battle for Rodriguez to maintain enough space
so that he can soar through the air with knees and kicks or spin
like a top with his fists and elbows. Rodriguez will be slightly
longer in the arms, but Ortega manages to fight long from both
stances, giving most strikers fits as he closes the distance and
utilizes head movement and footwork to stay just close enough to
frustrate them. Remarkably, just two of Ortega’s UFC wins have come
when he landed more
significant strikes, as he is a rare breed who sometimes only
needs one shot but does remain quite hittable. Whether by landing
with impunity on a tiring Rodriguez or by snatching the neck with
his patented guillotine choke, the avenues to victory are far
greater for the two-time former title challenger. If looking to go
bold on this pick, Ortega wins inside distance at +150 is not at
all outside the realm of possibility.
A striker’s delight is sure to play out between a technical boxer
in Burgos and high-flying Canadian Charles
Jourdain in an easy “Fight of the Night” contender on paper.
“Air” Jourdain keeps an exceptionally high pace and rarely slows
down, even when throwing energy-inefficient flying and spinning
moves that sometimes miss the mark by a matter of feet. The
significant
strike landed per minute average of 5.6 for Jourdain on its
face looks mighty impressive, and it would be against other
opponents. He takes on a man whose nickname in “Hurricane” fits him
as well as “Air” does to the flying striker, and Burgos’
significant strike rate of an astronomical
7.95 per minute clocks in as the second-highest in the UFC today.
Jourdain will be walking into a proverbial meat grinder of fists
and feet—largely the former—any time he tries to engage, and
Burgos’ forward-heavy approach can make a fighter who needs setup
time like Jourdain struggle.
For all of his high-volumed striking accolades, Burgos pairs it
with solid accuracy and good use of his range. With six inches in
the arms in his favor, the New Yorker can work on the outside into
close striking exchanges, setting things up from a distance and
chaining combinations together that start when Jourdain cannot
reach him with a counter. Both men celebrate chins almost comically
hard in nature, and they are more than willing to get into a
slugfest and take one to land one. This pairing should only hit the
ground should one man get dropped, with takedowns and the ensuing
grappling a likely non-factor. The final boost in favor of Burgos
is that he is unbeaten in his home state of New York after six
outings, and the home crowd cheering for him should energize him
even further. If skittish on selecting the chin-reliant Burgos, the
fight going over 2.5 rounds—therefore allowing a late finish from
an accumulation of damage—is a smooth +100.
In less than two weeks, Murphy will turn 39 years of age, but she
has not slowed or diminished to any notable capacity as she
approaches the golden years in the sport. One lone defeat stands
opposite five victories, and that loss came in the fourth round to
pound-for-pound talent Valentina
Shevchenko as she closed as a monstrous +800 underdog. The two
were once booked at UFC 276, but it was bumped two weeks due to a
positive COVID-19 test for Murphy. Likely due to her affliction—and
not the Clostridioides difficile infection that she claimed
occurred during the Shevchenko fight—Murphy has slumped on the
betting line to nearly a 2-to-1 underdog. Meeting Miesha Tate
in Murphy’s own weight class is a tough ask for the fellow
long-in-the-tooth Tate, and Murphy has value at high plus
money.
This could turn into a battle of the takedown, where one woman
looks to impose top position and get ground-and-pound going. When
it comes to being the dominant woman on top, Murphy vastly prefers
a position-first approach with striking later, while Tate would
like nothing more than to snatch up an exposed limb or neck while
on the mat. The women to beat Murphy in the UFC have practically
all done so by outwrestling the former Alaskan, and “Cupcake”
certainly has the chops to exploit that deficiency in defensive
wrestling. Should it stay on the feet, Murphy has historically
shown a greater volume than Tate, and it is anyone’s guess how Tate
will perform in her first move down to 125 pounds. With the
questions about Tate’s physical status leading up to the fight and
the fact that this is on paper a surprisingly evenly matched tilt,
Murphy’s underdog status puts her as one to watch.
The debut for Ducote may be a fortuitous one for her, as she meets
ex-atomweight Jessica
Penne in the first fight on the card. The former flyweight, who
vied for the inaugural Bellator MMA 125-pound title, returned to strawweight
in 2019 and looked nothing short of sensational. Eventually winning
the Invicta Fighting Championships strap in that
division, she went 4-1 in that company’s weight class—as she made
weight while Janaisa
Morandin did not—with the one defeat a razor-close split
decision to Kanako
Murata that could have easily gone her way. Moving down in
weight, she has managed to keep the power while gaining speed, and
this has made her a dangerous foe the last few years.
While Penne remains relevant even at the age of 39, she showed that
her four-year layoff from 2017 to 2022 was not spent collecting
dust. A tough fight with Lupita
Godinez and a submission over Karolina
Kowalkiewicz showed there is still life left in the former
title challenger. Her style may not mesh well with Ducote’s
hard-charging, powerful approach, as Penne would like nothing more
than to slow the fight to a grinding halt and shut down anything
Ducote can throw at her. Should this fight hit the ground, Penne
will likely hold the upper hand, but age and activity firmly gives
Ducote an advantage. Penne, who has never seemed to be a huge fan
of being on the feet, will meet a woman in “Gordinha” who is going
to hit her early and often. Barring a sneaky submission when the
two are dry early—Penne by submission at +470 is a suitable
alternate option if not choosing Ducote—this should be the
debutant’s fight to lose.